The Nationalist Party is marginally ahead of the Labour Party, the results of a survey show.

If an election were to be held tomorrow, the PN would receive a marginal 0.4% more votes than the PL, the data, obtained via Malta Survey, shows. It would translate into a mere 1,500 votes, incidentally similar to the difference with which the PN won its last election in 2008.

The survey indicated that both parties have also failed to retain a sizeable chunk of the people who voted for them in the last election, with one third of Labour Party voters saying they will not vote PL and one fifth of PN voters indicating they will not prefer the PN next time round.

The survey also shows that the number of people who, if an election is held now, will not vote, is more or less the same as the number of voters who did not participate in the 2022 election - around one from every seven voters. Another 4.4% are undecided which, with a survey having a 2.5% margin of error, makes the situation fluid.

With a sample size of 1,600, this is the first political survey to be carried out following an agreement signed by Standard Publications Limited and IDEA Intelligence, which administers maltasurvey.com. The agreement is for the development of periodic national surveys on politics, current affairs and other subjects of public interest. A first survey on public sentiment during summer was published in August.

Standard Publications is the publisher of The Malta Independent on Sunday, The Malta Independent (daily), The Malta Business Weekly and www.independent.com.mt

IDEA Intelligence is a data-driven business intelligence wing of the IDEA Group that aims to deliver thorough quantitative insights and information through sophisticated data.

This survey was carried out between 1 and 8 September, ending at 9am on the last day. The results may have been affected by the benefits fraud scandal, which broke on 3 September, while responses were being filed.

The general outcome of the survey shows that there is a very narrow gap between the potential votes allocated to the major parties if an election were to be held now. The Nationalist Party would receive 35.3% of votes, while the incumbent Labour Party would receive 34.9%. Keeping in mind the 2.5% margin of error, the two major parties are very much neck and neck. 

A large portion of respondents, 15.8%, said that they would not vote if a general election was held tomorrow. In the 2022 election, 14.4% of eligible voters had not cast their votes, so the percentage is quite similar.

In the survey, 4.4% stated that they are undecided. 4.9% said they would vote for the ADPD, and 4.9% said they would vote for other small parties and independent candidates.

One must keep in mind that there are four years to go until the next general election, which means that situations can drastically change.

The survey shows that both the Labour Party and the Nationalist Party took a hit in terms of retention of voters since the last general election; however, the Labour Party lost out more.

Only 67.9% of the people who voted for the Labour Party during the 2022 general elections will vote PL again if an election takes place tomorrow, according to the survey. 15.9% of those who said they voted Labour in 2022 now say that they will not vote, while 6.3% said they would vote for the PN, 2.8% said they would vote for ADPD and the rest would vote for other parties or said they do not know.

As for those who said they voted for the Nationalist Party in 2022, 79.3% said they would vote PN again if an election were to be held tomorrow, and 0.8% said they would vote for the Labour Party. 4.5% said they would vote ADPD, 4.9% said they would vote for small parties and independent candidates, 6% said they would not vote and 5.3% have not decided.

 

 

Trust in leaders

Survey respondents were also asked which leader they trusted the most: Prime Minister Robert Abela, Opposition Leader Bernard Grech, ADPD leader Sandra Gauci, or none of them.

Robert Abela received the highest percentage – 36%. The second highest number of respondents, 29.1%, said none. 27.1% said Bernard Grech and 7.8% said Sandra Gauci.

So while the Nationalist Party would receive the most votes, its leader is behind in the trust ratings.

Delving further into the data, the responses show that 96.4% of people who said that they would vote for the PL if an election were to be held tomorrow trust Abela the most. The other 3.6% said they don’t trust any of the three leaders. The data clearly indicates a great sense of loyalty by PL supporters towards their leader, a situation that was evident also in the past when the PL had other leaders.

As for those who would vote for the PN, only 75% said they trust Grech most. A large percentage, 22.5%, trusts none of the leaders and 2.5% trust Sandra Gauci most.

As for those who said they would vote for ADPD, 90.5% trust Gauci most and 9.5% said none.

9.8% of potential non-voters said they trust Abela most, while only 1.7% indicated Grech. 16.7% of undecided voters said Abela and 7.6% opted for Grech.

Gozo would switch to PN

The data was also divided by region.

The survey found that Gozo would switch to the PN if an election were to be held tomorrow.

In 2022, 53.54% voted for the Labour Party and 43.94% voted for the Nationalist Party in district 13, which is the Gozo and Comino region. But the survey shows the PN is in the lead in this region. Keeping in mind that while the percentages of the 2022 electoral result do not take into account those who did not vote while the survey percentages do, the survey shows that 39.3% would vote PN if the election were held tomorrow, while 28.2% would vote PL. 14.5% say they would not vote. The Gozo and Comino region also has the highest percentage of undecided voters out of all the regions, standing at 8.5%. The rest would vote for other parties.

The survey found that the Nationalist Party would also have a majority in the Northern, Northern Harbour, and Western regions. The Labour Party would have a majority in the South Eastern region and the Southern Harbour region.

In the Northern region, the PN, if an election were held tomorrow, would receive 40.5% of the vote, and the Labour Party would receive 30.3%. 14.8% would not vote and 5.3% are undecided. 4.5% would vote for other parties and independent candidates, and 4.5% would vote for the ADPD.

The strongest support for the PN can be found in the Northern Harbour region. 42.1% would vote PN and 28.8% would vote PL. 13.5% would not vote and 4.2% are undecided. 4.9% would vote for the ADPD and 6.4% would cast their votes for other parties and independent candidates.

In the South Eastern region, 42.2% would vote PL while 28% would vote PN. 17.1% said they would not vote and 3.3% are undecided. Here, 3.3% said they would vote for ADPD and 6.2% would vote for other parties and independent candidates.

The South Harbour region saw the highest percentage of voters say they would vote for the Labour Party (47.2%) when compared to elsewhere. 24.4% said they would vote PN, while 17.1% said they would not vote. 3.5% are undecided. This region also saw the highest percentage of support for the ADPD when compared to other regions, standing at 7%. 0.9% said they would vote for other parties and independent candidates.

In the Western region, 37.3% said they would vote PN and 29.7% said they would vote PL. This region had the highest percentage of people who wouldn't vote - 18.4%. 4.9% said they are undecided. 4.3% said they would vote ADPD and 5.4% would vote for other parties and independent candidates.

In every region, with the exception of the Northern Harbour region, more people trust Abela as a leader over Grech. The leadership trust gap between Abela and Grech is less than half a percentile in the Northern District, which also happens to be the region with the highest lack of trust in either leader. Abela has the majority trust in leadership within the Southern region and the South Eastern region by significant gaps to all other options. Abela also has a gap of 5% from Grech in the Western region, even though the PN has a majority vote if an election were to be held tomorrow. In the Northern Harbour, 32.6% trust Grech most and 27.9% trust Abela most.

Government and Opposition performance

Over 50% of respondents said that they are not satisfied with the performance of the government and the opposition.

One of the questions in this survey allowed the participants to rate their perception of the current government's and opposition's performance, each on a 5-point scale.

When it comes to the government, 44.3% were 'very dissatisfied' with the government's performance, while 19.4% were 'not satisfied'. 7.8% said they were neutral. 20.1% said they were satisfied and 8.4% said they were 'very satisfied'.

As for the Opposition's performance, 42.8% said they were 'very dissatisfied' and 23.6% were 'not satisfied'. 16.7% were 'neutral'. 13.7% were 'satisfied' and 3.2% were 'very satisfied'.

The results follow the findings of a previous survey performed in August showing a low rating of the country's current quality of politics and political debate. In that survey, the majority (74.1%) rated the current state of the political climate and debate across all parties as "poor".

When looking at how those who voted for the Labour Party in 2022 view the government's performance, 13.6% were very dissatisfied and 17% were not satisfied. 13.1% were neutral and 56.3% were satisfied or very satisfied. This shows almost half of Labour Party voters would not rate government's performance as being good. In terms of those who voted PN in 2022, 0.8% was satisfied or were very satisfied with the government's performance and 2.1% were neutral, the rest were negative.

As for the Opposition's performance, of those who voted for the PN in 2022, 12.5% were very dissatisfied and 23.8% were dissatisfied. 26.7% were neutral and 37% said they are satisfied or very satisfied. This shows that more than half of PN voters would not rate their party's performance as good. Of those who voted for the PL in 2022, 4.5% said they are satisfied or very satisfied with the Opposition's performance, and 9.6% said they are neutral.

 

Methodology

This online survey was carried out between 1 and 8 September 2023. Online advertisements were shown on social media platforms and all participants opted to take part voluntarily. Data gathering was administered by MaltaSurvey.com without input from The Malta Independent to prevent any potential reader bias. Submissions were gathered through MaltaSurvey.com's proprietary platform and full anonymity of the sample base was ensured. Analysis was done using data science tools including Python, Julia, SPSS and Jupyter Notebooks.

Whilst the sample is fully anonymous, demographic variables were utilised in the initial set of questions in order to keep control of the representativeness of the sample. The target population was people living in Malta who are at least 16 years of age. NSO publications were used to establish the required proportions of the sample by Gender, Age, Region and Education. After collecting the sample, the cases were weighted by the same four variables (Gender, Age, Region and Education) to ensure a close representation of the sample. In addition, past electoral performances were used in the weighting procedure.

The survey sample voter distribution reflected the voter distribution in the 2022 elections. For instance, 34.3% of the sample said they voted PN in 2022, where in the actual 2022 result the PN got 34.7% of the votes. The biggest percentage difference could be seen when it comes to the 2022 PL votes. In 2022, the Labour Party garnered 45.8% of the vote, whereas in the survey sample, 49.5% said they voted for the Labour Party. One must also keep in mind that while there were invalid votes in the actual election, there obviously wasn't an option for this in the survey.

In the 2022 election, 14.3% of the voters chose not to exercise their right to vote. In this survey, 14.1% of the participants said they did not vote.

The results have a 2.5% margin of error at a 95% confidence level. Specific sub-divisions by demographics and/or specific cohorts have significantly larger margins of error.

 

Tomorrow: Who is the best performing minister?

Tuesday: What are the major concerns of the Maltese people?