The Labour Party holds a 15,422 vote lead over the Nationalist Party as Malta edges closer to the European Parliament elections next June, a survey by MaltaToday shows.

Published on Sunday, the survey also predicts a record level of abstention, with the turnout being estimated at just 62.5%.

The survey, which is the first of 2024, sees the PL stand at 47.9% and the PN at 41% in terms of support.  Other political parties between them pick up a particularly high 11.1% of the votes.  There is no breakdown in the support of these smaller political parties.

The survey shows that abstention rates are highest in younger demographics: around half of those aged between 16 and 50 indicated that they will not vote.  Gozo and the Labour-leaning South Eastern region have the highest abstention rates, with both clocking in over 40%.

The PL boasts higher support in the 16 to 35 and the 36 to 50 age bracket, while there is nothing to separate the two parties in the 51 to 65 and 65+ age brackets.  Third parties logged the most support in those aged between 16 and 35 and between 36 and 50 – with 10% and 9.4% of these demographics respectively indicating that they will vote away from the mainstream parties.

The survey shows that it is the Labour Party suffering most from voter abstention: 34.2% - over a third – of those who voted for the party in 2022 have said they will not vote come June – meaning that the party will only retain 58.1% of its voters from two years ago.

The survey shows that the PN is set to lose 22.7% of its 2022 voters to abstention, but it will retain 70.9% of those who voted for it in 2022.  The party also seems to be doing a better job of attracting those who did not vote in 2022: 14.1% of that demographic indicated it will vote for the PN, compared to 11.6% who said they will vote for third parties and just 6.5% who said that they will vote for the PL.

When it comes to trust, Robert Abela far outshines his Opposition counterpart: the Prime Minister registers 41.1% in trust, while Bernard Grech only registers 16.7%.  However 42.2% of respondents said that they trust neither leader.

The statistics make for heavy reading for Grech, as it shows that over half (50.8%) of those who voted for the PN in 2022 do not trust his leadership. 

The government’s performance was also given a rating of 2.8 out of 5, improving from 2.6 when compared to MaltaToday’s December survey.