The Malta Independent 5 May 2025, Monday
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Survey shows PL in the lead by 16,000 votes, gap between parties narrows

Saturday, 8 February 2025, 17:56 Last update: about 4 months ago

A survey carried out by statistician Vincent Marnara, published Saturday, shows that the Labour Party holds a 16,000 vote lead over the Nationalist Party.

The PL won the last general election by 39,000 votes, with the survey showing that the margin between the two parties has narrowed substantially.

The survey, held between 1 and 6 February, with 1,200 participants and having a 2.8% margin of error.

It showed that the PL would just obtain a majority 50.1%, with the PN following on 44%, ADPD 3% and other parties 2.7%.

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But one has to take into account that more than one-fifth of respondents - 22% - would not indicate their party of preference and are not sure they will be casting their vote.

In his explanation, Marmarà said there seems to be a "strong and consolidated" part of the voter base that remains undecided or unwilling to vote.

This is the second survey of its kind, with the first having been published in October.

Many of those reluctant voters are traditionally Labour voters who are unhappy with the current state of affairs but unwilling to vote for other parties.

Primary concerns are immigration, overpopulation, construction, traffic and the environment, the survey found.

A total of 72.2% of those who voted Labour in the 2022 election said they will once again support the party in government, while just 1.5% said they will vote for the PN.

The PN showed a stronger retention rate, as 80.5% of its voters  in 2022 said they would once again vote for the same party.

A further 11.9% said they are undecided, 6.2% will not be voting, 1% will vote for ADPD and just 0.4% for Labour.

Labour leader Robert Abela continues to hold a strong lead over Bernard Grech when it comes to voter confidence, with 37.8% citing him as their preferred leader to Grech's 24.6%.


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