A change in leadership will not on its own be a solution for the PN's troubles, Andrew Azzopardi told The Malta Independent on Sunday. "But it might be part of a solution."

This newsroom spoke to three pundits - Andrew Azzopardi, Michael Briguglio and Robert Musumeci, to get their views after the resignation of Bernard Grech last Tuesday.

Azzopardi said that the PN has an identity crisis, and Briguglio said that there are still people within the PN who look down on people who do not form part of their faction.

Musumeci said that until voters believe that change is not just desirable but safe, they will stay put.

Grech announced his resignation on Tuesday, after a political survey found that the PN is some 39,000 votes behind the PL, thus eradicating momentum it had gained after the EU and local council elections last year.

There is a combination of factors the PN has to face - Andrew Azzopardi

Azzopardi said "the PN had four leaders who came from different angles, so to speak. Lawrence Gonzi was affiliated with Eddie Fenech Adami, Simon Busuttil came from the EU, Adrian Delia was an outsider, Bernard Grech was conservative. There were different options, yet they all lost elections by large margins," he said.

He believes Grech's resignation "had to happen, but if you had to ask me it should have happened right after the MEP elections as it was clear that was as far as he could take the PN. That would have given enough of a chance for someone else to have enough time."

But now, Azzopardi said, Grech has "tried to solve a problem by creating another one, because we know that Prime Minister Robert Abela, regardless of who will take over the PN leadership, will likely call an election within a year. It is not about whether Roberta Metsola takes over or not. No matter who it is, Abela wants a strong win and to reconfirm the 40,000 vote majority he won in 2022 which people said he won thanks to the strength of Joseph Muscat. That is probably the game, so he will not allow enough time for the PN gain momentum."

"Having said that, if Metsola ends up being the PN leader, within hours I believe many people who feel politically orphaned would find solace. I believe things would start moving immediately, but the fact remains that Metsola on her own will not solve the PN's problem. A change in leadership is not a solution on its own. The PN has an identity crisis," Azzopardi said.

"I have no doubt that many within the PL don't believe that euthanasia is a solution, or that cannabis was a good idea, but there is this idea of a movement, where people have their place, feel comfortable within the party and respect that a decision has to be taken. In the PN's case, the PN tries to please everyone and ends up pleasing nobody."

He mentioned the ability Abela has to make U-turns. On Manoel Island, Azzopardi said Abela changed his position. "He knew what the contract said, he worked as a lawyer. The moment he felt that this was an issue for the people, he diametrically changed position. He also changed position on the abortion debate, and on the Jean Paul Sofia public inquiry. One could call it populism, or a U-turn, but I also think he has the capacity to say that people want something and that he would give it to them. You cannot ignore the power of incumbency."

The PL also underwent drastic changes last summer in most of its top posts, he said. "In addition, Joseph Muscat's people came back in. Abela recognised that if he is going to try and exclude Joseph Muscat from the formula there is no way that he can manage. So he made an internal U-turn, having no problems calling Muscat his friend when we know that for a long time they had problems with each other."

"So there is this combination of factors the PN has to face," he said. "Yes, the PN needs strong leadership, but it's not just about that. It's about the party's identity, moving away from the holier than thou approach, the need not to remain being seen as the pseudo-party of the Church, and not take ages to take decisions. On euthanasia I was expecting a public position, they could have said they were giving a free vote to MPs on it," Azzopardi said as an example.

The whole situation surrounding the PN is very complex, and "there is also the feeling that people by and large perceive themselves as comfortable. The issues of overpopulation, traffic, hospital waiting lists... the government managed to kill off these issues. For a period of time it was enough for people to consider changing their vote, but it is no longer enough. This leadership change will either be an opportunity for the PN, or else they need to start afresh. They need to reinvent themselves," Azzopardi said.

Whoever takes over has to ensure that the PN is not ruled by a faction which is in itself elitist - Michael Briguglio

Sociologist and former politician Michael Briguglio said that "one needs to see the position that Bernard Grech was in, which I think was an impossible position."

"From the outside it seems he was no longer enjoying the support of some of those who originally supported him when he replaced Adrian Delia as leader. That was becoming quite apparent."

"Secondly, merit has to be given to him for having done his best to make the party functional again, as the party had been clearly split into different factions when he became leader," he said.

Last year, when there were the EU elections, it seemed that the party was going in a positive direction, as while the Labour Party won more votes, it still resulted in both major parties having three MEPs each. Undoubtedly, the Roberta Metsola factor also played an important role in the PN's success. The PN also won back certain localities in the local council elections. There was clearly a united front in the party, and here credit also has to be given to Adrian Delia, because he was ousted, in my opinion, in a brutal way. Notwithstanding that, in the EU Parliament elections, he was standing behind Bernard Grech.

During the elections last year there was this feeling that the PN is back in business, he said. "Since then Grech made some mistakes, for example with his original stance on Manoel Island. I also think that certain groups were no longer supporting him in the party."

"To be electable, the PN needs someone who can unite the party, and someone who appeals to non-PN voters, which is essential. I don't believe that can be someone from a faction that is sectarian, which is a problem within the PN. There are still people within the PN who look down on people do not form part of their faction, try to cancel other people and consider Labour to be inferior. That type of mentality has to go, they cannot win with it. Whoever takes over the party's leadership has to ensure that the PN is not ruled by a faction which is in itself elitist and exclusionary."

Until voters believe that change is not just desirable but safe, they will stay put - Robert Musumeci

Musumeci said that Grech was a decent politician. Whether his resignation will save the PN is another story, Musumeci said.

"Labour remains dominant not because it is flawless, but because it manages to keep just enough people content. When the majority feels heard, switching seems unnecessary, even risky."

"The lesson from 1996 still resonates: it takes a collective shift in sentiment to unseat an incumbent. Until voters believe that change is not just desirable but safe, they will stay put. Familiarity, even flawed, holds sway."