The Labour Party holds a narrow three-point lead over the Nationalist Party in the first MaltaToday survey since Alex Borg's election as PN leader.

According to MaltaToday's October survey, Labour registers 48.8% support while the Nationalists stand at 45.9%. Third parties collectively garner 5.4%, with ADPD at 2.4% and Momentum at 2%.

Another survey carried out by statistician Vincent Marmara showed Labour leading by 25,000 votes.

The MaltaToday survey, conducted among 741 respondents over the past two weeks, is based on a projected turnout of 81.6%. This translates into an estimated Labour lead of 8,394 votes. However, the gap between the two major parties falls within the survey's margin of error (+/-3.6 points), meaning the PN could theoretically be ahead by 4.2 points or trailing by as much as 10.2 points.

These results mark a sharp shift since June, when Labour was enjoying a commanding 13.6-point advantage. The current survey was carried out before Bernard Grech's resignation as PN leader, suggesting today's numbers may reflect a honeymoon effect for his successor, particularly among younger voters.

The present gap is similar to that recorded in the 2024 MEP elections. A year ago, MaltaToday's October survey had the PN leading by 2.9 points. But following the budget, Labour first drew level with the PN in November 2024 and subsequently widened its lead in all 2025 surveys.

Compared with June's figures, Labour has slipped by 4.5 points, while the PN has gained 6.1 points. Over the same period, the share of non-voters fell slightly by 1.3 points.

Labour's difficulties partly stem from a 3.2-point rise in abstention among its 2022 voters, increasing from 6.7% in June to 9.9% now. The party has also lost some voters directly to the PN.

By contrast, the PN appears to be energised under Borg's leadership. Non-voting among its 2022 voters has dropped from 10.5% in June to 5.2%. The PN now retains a greater share of its 2022 support (86.1%) than Labour (81.1%), reversing the trend seen in June when Labour retained 87.2% versus the PN's 82.1%.

Taken together, the findings point to a decline in enthusiasm for the governing party and a resurgence of momentum for the opposition under its new leadership.