A new opinion survey carried out by statistician Vince Marmarà between 13 and 19 February 2026 indicates that the Labour Party retains a solid lead over the Nationalist Party, though a significant bloc of undecided voters could still influence the final outcome.
The telephone and mobile survey was conducted among a representative sample of 1,200 respondents aged 16 and over. It carries a confidence level of 95 per cent and a margin of error of ±2.8 per cent. The sample was calibrated to reflect Malta's demographic profile and voting patterns in the 2022 general election. For non-responses, the method of multiple imputation was applied.
When respondents were asked how they would vote if a general election were held tomorrow, 46.8 per cent said they would choose the Labour Party, 38.2 per cent opted for the Nationalist Party, 3.2 per cent indicated ADPD or other parties, while 11.8 per cent said they were undecided.
After applying a scientific model to account for those who refused to answer, the projected results shift to 52.8 per cent for Labour, 42.6 per cent for the Nationalists, and 4.6 per cent for ADPD or other parties. Based on various scenarios concerning undecided voters, the projected gap between the two main parties ranges between 9 and 11 percentage points.
Assuming valid votes amount to approximately 77 per cent of the electorate, and factoring in different undecided voter scenarios, the survey estimates a lead of between 25,000 and 29,000 votes in favour of Labour.
The survey also examined leadership preferences. Among those who voted Labour in 2022, 85.6 per cent said they prefer Robert Abela as Prime Minister, while 1.1 per cent mentioned Alex Borg. The remainder were undecided, preferred no one, or selected another name.
Among 2022 Nationalist voters, 85.9 per cent preferred Alex Borg, while 1.4 per cent opted for Robert Abela. Others were undecided, chose no one, or selected alternative figures.
Following statistical adjustments for non-response, the final leadership preference results show 44.4 per cent backing Robert Abela and 34.7 per cent backing Alex Borg. A further 9.2 per cent said they prefer neither, 9.0 per cent were undecided, and 2.8 per cent chose others. This places Abela 9.7 percentage points ahead of his rival.
According to Marmarà's analysis, the gap between the parties has remained broadly stable compared to the previous survey conducted three months ago. The slight decline compared to the last general election appears largely attributable to a higher proportion of former Labour voters who are now indicating they may abstain, rather than a direct transfer of votes to the Nationalists.
The data suggests both major parties are consolidating their core support, with minimal direct vote shifts between them. However, the number of undecided voters and those reluctant to vote remains significant, particularly among those who supported Labour in 2022. Barring any major political developments or significant new policy proposals, the survey indicates that current voting intentions are likely to remain relatively consistent in the short term.