Over-tourism is not simply a question of numbers, but also a question of how residents experience daily life as visitor numbers continue to rise, tourism anthropologist Professor Marie Avellino said, adding that the real threshold is crossed if residents feel that infrastructure, public spaces and community life were under strain.

Speaking to The Malta Independent on Sunday, University academic Avellino said that while policymakers often focused on bed stock and visitor growth, resident perception is also a critical sustainability indicator when it comes to over-tourism.

Malta registered yet another record in terms of tourism numbers, with the National Statistics Office announcing last week that inbound tourists for 2025 amounted to 4,022,310 - an increase of 12.9% over 2024. Total nights spent by inbound tourists went up by 11%, reaching 25.4 million nights.

Total tourist expenditure in 2025 was estimated at €3,904.4 million, 18.6% higher than that recorded in 2024. Total expenditure per capita increased to €971 from €924 in 2024. The increase in numbers - added to the steady growth in population - has raised questions related to Malta's sustainability as pressure on the infrastructure has grown exponentially.

Avellino was asked, from an academic perspective, how over-tourism was typically defined and whether Malta met those criteria. 2019, just before the Covid-19 pandemic, it had created its own working definition.

"We wanted to know how the residents felt, so we used the criteria that it becomes 'over-tourism' when the residents feel it has become over-tourism, that it is affecting them," she said.

Avellino explained that in tourism studies, the traditional term used was "carrying capacity", meaning the level of visitors a destination could absorb without negative consequences.

However, she said that carrying capacity was not simply about space, but about systems.

"When you are looking at a country and you have a carrying capacity, it has to look at the residents and how the infrastructure in the country is going to affect their well-being, which will grow with more visitors," she said.

Avellino drew a comparison with health and safety standards in an office building, where a room might legally hold three employees, yet evacuation corridors might not be wide enough if all offices were filled simultaneously.

In a national context, the same principle applied to drainage systems, water supply, energy provision, medical resources and transport infrastructure, she said.

Avellino said that carrying capacity was extremely difficult to quantify in practice, and that if it was exceeded, over-tourism would result.

However, she acknowledged that while the definition sounded straightforward, it was not workable in purely technical terms, which was why the research focused instead on residents' perceptions and lived experience.

What the 2019 study had found was that many residents tended to confuse tourists with foreign workers, grouping them together when discussing overcrowding, she said.

"There was a time when people used to complain that in the summer months, while waiting at a bus stop, it would be full of English language students. Now they will say it is full of foreigners. Everybody is here for a valid reason, but it confuses people," she said.

In built-up areas such as Sliema, she said, even excessive construction had been blamed on tourism, as residents associated the expansion of the service industry directly with visitor growth.

From 'the more, the better' to questioning limits

Avellino recalled that Malta had historically focused on increasing tourist arrivals, with little reference to capacity.

"We used to say that Malta needed 400,000 tourists a year, the more the better. It was never much about carrying capacity," she said.

Only shortly before the pandemic had complaints about excessive numbers begun to gain traction, but the pandemic had shifted the narrative, Avellino said.

"When Covid-19 struck, everyone again realised how important tourism is to the economy, and we went back to wanting more and more tourists," she said.

She referred to the 2022 carrying capacity exercise commissioned by the Malta Hotels and Restaurants Association and carried out by Deloitte, saying that she had attended the presentation.

"As soon as I heard them discussing it, I realised that this was not a true carrying capacity exercise," she said.

According to Avellino, the study had examined accommodation supply and projected beds in the development pipeline, rather than systemic capacity.

"That is not a carrying capacity exercise. Carrying capacity means looking at the country's drainage, water supply, energy provision and medical resources. One needs to know the country's capability to have so many people coming to the island," she said.

Avellino pointed out that older generations would remember water supply being shut off at night, and said that water acquisition in Malta is still very expensive.

Infrastructure strain and diminishing experience

Avellino said that traffic has become one of the most visible indicators of strain.

"Forget doing a full day in Malta today. One of the first things is the traffic. We all experience it, we do not need anybody to tell us it takes ages to get from one place to another," she said.

She warned that excessive visitor influx was not positive for residents or tourists alike.

"We forget that if the tourist does not enjoy the experience, they will not come again and they will tell more people not to come," she said.

Avellino cited Venice and Dubrovnik as examples of destinations grappling with over-tourism and gentrification, explaining that historic centres often became over-commercialised as property owners opted to rent to tourists rather than residents.

"The village core becomes over-commercialised, prices increase and in the end local residents cannot live there," she said.

Avellino noted that Dubrovnik had seen residents move out to make space for restaurants along the harbour, creating cities that were busy during the day yet empty at night.

She said that Valletta had experienced similar pressures, though regeneration efforts had since revived the city, perhaps even to the other extreme.

Mdina, she observed, had visibly few remaining residents.

"Residents either sold out, as they made more money by selling and giving way for businesses, or they passed away. Mdina was always full of tourists, but there was a time when it was still the Silent City," she said.

When asked directly whether over-tourism drove residents out, she replied that if conditions deteriorated significantly, it did.

The 'quality tourist' narrative

Turning to government's emphasis on attracting "quality tourists", Avellino said this approach had emerged when the Malta Tourism Authority revised its strategic plan for 2021-2030.

She explained that the definition of quality had evolved, and that while higher-spending tourists were seen as desirable, expectations also rose accordingly.

"We are opening up to New York in June, which is brilliant, because we know these are higher-spending tourists. However, these are expert tourists. They will compare Malta to other countries and to what they have at home," she said.

Avellino said that value for money had to be maintained and warned against raising prices merely because visitors could afford to pay more.

She also questioned whether Malta's push to market itself as a gastronomic destination was compelling enough.

"Yes, we have good olive oil and blood oranges, but I cannot imagine somebody from New York wanting to come to Malta for olive oil," she said, suggesting instead that Malta's unique heritage, such as its temples, should remain central to its identity.

Environmental pressures and shrinking public space

Avellino identified waste management and food importation as major environmental pressures.

"At the end of the day, all waste leaves the island," she said, noting that around 70% of Malta's food was imported and that the island could never be self-sustaining given its limited land and moderate fertility.

She expressed concern about importing exotic foods from distant continents for novelty, arguing that sustainability required prioritising local or Mediterranean products.

Avellino also pointed to the gradual loss of open spaces and public coastal areas.

"We do not have open spaces and they are decreasing. The government is opening small gardens, but it does not feel enough for residents," she said.

Referring to the Gżira seafront, she said that parts of the public foreshore were now occupied by restaurants built on the sea, limiting public access and visibility.

"That is public land, and open public areas are slowly being taken up, which leaves people nowhere to rest," she said.

She said that improving residents' quality of life would simultaneously enhance the tourist experience.

"Whatever is done to improve the life of residents will also improve the experience of tourists. If the tourist is happy, they will appreciate and spend more, and that will go back to improving the life of residents," she said.

Zoning, waste and long-term planning

On housing pressures, she acknowledged that some residents had chosen to convert homes into short-term rentals, complicating the blame placed on tourism.

She argued that zoning could offer clarity, with designated tourist zones and protected residential zones, though she admitted that introducing zoning at this stage would be politically difficult.

Avellino said that infrastructure planning was urgent if accommodation applications continued.

"We have been talking about transport for too long. Shall we have a tram? Or something else? Even by the time it happens, years will pass," she said.

Avellino described waste disposal as a "massive issue", particularly in mixed residential blocks where short-term tenants left rubbish outside on departure days.

"Education is very important, but the structures have to be there," she said, adding that if owners were making money from rentals, part of that revenue should address waste management.

Measuring sustainability and future risks

Avellino said that tourism targets had to be measurable from a sustainability perspective, and that AI and data collection now made this possible, provided there was political will.

She acknowledged that Malta had achieved year-round tourism success but warned that the country is already feeling the effects.

"Ideally, numbers would stabilise, and we would get tourists to leave more revenue in the island," she said.

If current trends continued without adequate intervention, Avellino said that consequences would not be positive, though she noted that authorities were becoming more aware and had begun revising policy frameworks.

"There has to be the willpower to adopt a hybrid model suitable for Malta," she said.

Avellino said that even souvenirs have to be of high quality to attract quality tourists.

"Have something of good quality, something unique. I remember there was a time when people would buy from Mdina glass to take back home. Today, they don't buy it because they travel low cost and it is heavy to take. People in the 70s even bought knights' armour. It was of high value," she said.

Ultimately, Avellino argued that the debate should not be framed solely around increasing numbers but around ensuring that what Malta offered remained worthy of respect.

"Once we get tourists to respect what we have, that will surely attract quality," Avellino said.