The Labour Party continues to hold a strong advantage over the Nationalist Party less than a week before Malta votes in the 2026 General Election, according to the fourth survey carried out by statistician Vincent Marmarà during the election campaign.
The survey, conducted between 14 and 20 May among 1,500 respondents, places the PL comfortably ahead of the PN, with projections indicating a lead ranging between 27,000 and 33,000 votes, with the average estimate standing at around 30,000 votes in favour of the PL.
When respondents were asked which party they intended to vote for in the upcoming election, 49.1% said they would vote for the Labour Party, while 38.1% backed the Nationalist Party. Another 3.2% said they would vote for other parties, while 9.6% remained undecided.
After applying what researchers described as a scientific model to account for those who refused to answer, the projected electoral result stands at 53.3% for Labour, 42.8% for the PN, and 3.9% for other parties.
The survey indicates that the gap between the two main parties currently varies between 9% and 12%, depending on how undecided voters are distributed and on different turnout scenarios.
Researchers noted that voter movement between the two major parties appears limited, suggesting that gains made by one party are largely being offset by losses elsewhere.
The survey also highlighted the importance of turnout in determining the final margin. Based on trends from previous elections, which have shown declining voter participation, the study factored turnout into its projections.
The survey additionally measured public preferences for prime minister.
Among voters who supported the Labour Party in the 2022 election, 87.6% said they preferred Prime Minister Robert Abela as the country's leader, while 2.3% mentioned PN leader Alex Borg. The remainder were undecided, chose nobody, or selected another option.
Among those who voted PN in 2022, 82.2% preferred Borg as prime minister, while 4% said they preferred Abela.
After adjustments for non-responses were applied, the final leadership figures showed Abela preferred by 47.8% of respondents, compared to 33.3% for Borg. Another 2.4% selected other names, 7% said they preferred nobody, while 9.5% remained undecided.
The results place Abela 14.5 percentage points ahead of Borg in the prime ministerial preference survey.
The survey was conducted via telephone and mobile phone interviews and carried a confidence level of 95% with a margin of error of ±2.5%. Researchers said the sample was calibrated according to Maltese demographics and voting patterns from the 2022 general election to achieve greater accuracy.