Labour remains ahead of the Nationalist Party by 5%, with the governing party on track to secure a 15,000-vote margin in a hypothetical election tomorrow, a new poll from Times of Malta suggests.

While Labour still holds the lead, its margin has decreased slightly since February, when it was predicted to win by 6.5%-about 18,700 votes. This change is largely attributed to a drop in Labour's projected support, rather than a significant boost for the Nationalist Party.

According to research firm Esprimi, Labour's forecasted vote share now stands at 50.1%, down from 51.5% in February. In comparison, the 2022 general election saw Labour win a record 55.1% of the vote. Meanwhile, the Nationalist Party is expected to secure 45.1% of the vote, a slight increase from February's forecast of 45%, and a notable improvement over their 41.7% result in 2022.

Third-party support, including groups like ADPD and Momentum, is projected at 4.8%, a modest rise from 3.5% earlier this year. Voter turnout is expected to be just under 84%, with 16.3% of the electorate currently anticipated to abstain. However, this non-voter rate is likely to decrease closer to election day.

The poll, conducted between September 29 and October 9, reflects a period of adjustment for the Nationalist Party, which is still finding its footing under new leader Alex Borg. Despite Borg's assertions that he could quickly close the gap, the data shows his appeal to voters-particularly younger demographics-has yet to translate into significant political movement.

While recent polls from other sources also show Labour in the lead, the margins vary. A poll by Labour-affiliated statistician Vincent Marmarà estimated a 25,000-vote gap, while Malta Today suggested a tighter 8,000-vote difference.

Despite Labour's slight dip in support, the same cannot be said for Prime Minister Robert Abela's popularity. His trust rating has increased to 50.11%, a rise from 49.1% in February, and outpaces Alex Borg's current rating of 48.7%.