The gap between the Labour Party and the Nationalist Party stands at around 7,500 votes, according to Maltatoday's March survey, confirming that while the governing party remains ahead, the political contest remains relatively tight.

The survey places Labour at 48.2% and the Nationalist Party at 45.6%, giving Labour a lead of 2.6 percentage points. This represents a marginal narrowing from the 3.2-point advantage recorded in January. Based on a projected turnout of around 81%, the difference translates into roughly 7,500 votes, down from about 9,300 two months ago. However, the shift falls within the survey's margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points, meaning the overall picture has effectively remained stable since October.

The findings are based on a survey of 784 respondents conducted over the past two weeks. The polling period coincided with heightened political tension over the appointment of the next chief justice, as well as increased global instability linked to the war in Iran.

Despite maintaining the lead, Labour continues to be affected by a higher rate of abstention among its own voters from the 2022 general election. Around 13.3% of those who voted Labour in that election say they would not vote if an election were held now, compared to just 5.6% of Nationalist voters expressing the same intention. This higher level of disengagement among Labour's previous supporters remains the main factor reducing the party's advantage.

Overall, the Nationalist Party is currently retaining a larger proportion of its 2022 voters. The survey shows that 86.3% of those who voted PN in the last general election would repeat their choice, while 78.2% of Labour voters say they would do the same.

There is also a modest shift of voters between the two major parties. Around 6% of Labour voters from the 2022 election now say they would vote PN, while 3.7% of former Nationalist voters would switch to Labour. However, the Nationalist Party is losing a larger share of its voters to smaller parties. Around 4.5% of PN voters say they would opt for a third party, compared to 2.5% of Labour voters making the same move.

Support for third parties collectively stands at 6.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points since January.

The survey also indicates that the Nationalist Party is attracting support from people who did not vote in the 2022 election. Among these former non-voters, 20.1% say they would now vote PN, compared to 8.8% who would vote Labour. At the same time, the overall percentage of respondents saying they would not vote has remained broadly stable, rising slightly from 18.9% in January to 19.3%.

Regional trends broadly reflect traditional political strongholds. Labour enjoys large leads in the South Harbour region, where it leads by 28.1 points, and in the South Eastern region with an 18.4-point advantage. The party also registers a smaller lead in the Northern region.

The Nationalist Party retains a narrow lead of 4.3 points in the North Harbour region and shows strong support in Gozo, where it leads by 13.5 points. The survey also records a large Nationalist advantage in the Western region, although this result is considered anomalous and should be interpreted cautiously due to higher margins of error in regional breakdowns.

Demographic trends show Labour leading among voters aged 36 to 50 by 7.4 points and maintaining a smaller advantage among those aged 65 and over. The Nationalist Party leads among younger voters aged 16 to 35 by 6.8 points. However, abstention is highest among younger voters, with around a quarter saying they would not vote.

The survey also reveals a higher rate of abstention among women, 22.4% of whom say they would not vote compared to 16% of men.

On leadership trust, Prime Minister Robert Abela holds a clearer advantage over Opposition leader Alex Borg. In a head-to-head question, 44.1% say they trust Abela to run the country, compared to 37.7% who prefer Borg, giving the prime minister a lead of 6.4 percentage points. Both leaders improved their ratings since January, although Abela registered the larger increase.

Notably, among respondents who currently say they would not vote, Abela is still more likely to be trusted to lead the country than Borg. This suggests that Labour may still have greater potential to recover support among disengaged voters in the months ahead.