The Labour Party has maintained a solid lead over the Nationalist Party in the latest Vincent Marmarà election survey published Saturday, with results indicating that the race has remained largely stable over the past week.
The survey, carried out by Sagalytics between April 30 and May 6 among 1,200 respondents, places the Labour Party on 53.1% after statistical adjustments, compared to 42.6% for the PN. ADPD is projected to obtain 2.3%, while other parties account for 2%.
The figures translate into a gap of between 9% and 12%, with the average equivalent to around 29,000 votes in Labour's favour, assuming a turnout of approximately 81%.
The results show only marginal changes from last week's survey published by the statistician, which had placed Labour on 53.1% and the PN on 43.1%, which had given Labour a 10-point lead equivalent to roughly 28,000 votes.
While Labour's projected vote share has remained unchanged, the PN has slipped slightly by half a percentage point. ADPD and smaller parties have registered small gains. The overall picture, however, suggests that the campaign has so far failed to produce any major shifts in voter sentiment.
The survey itself notes that direct vote movement between the two major parties remains minimal, with gains and losses effectively cancelling each other out. This indicates that both Labour and the PN have largely succeeded in retaining their traditional voter bases, while the battle for undecided voters remains open.
One of the most significant elements of the latest survey remains the relatively high number of undecided voters. According to the poll, 12.9% of respondents still do not know who they will vote for. Based on projected turnout figures, this represents around 36,000 votes still in play less than a month before election day.
Among raw responses before statistical modelling was applied, 47.3% said they intended to vote Labour, while 36.5% backed the PN. ADPD stood at 1.7%, with 1.6% opting for other parties.
The survey also examined leadership preferences and again confirmed Prime Minister Robert Abela as the preferred choice for prime minister over PN leader Alex Borg.
After adjustments, 46.2% said they preferred Abela as prime minister, compared to 32.2% for Borg. Another 4% preferred other figures, 8% said they preferred no one, while 9.6% remained undecided.
This gives Abela a 14-point advantage over Borg, a slight increase from last week's survey, where Abela led by 13.6 points with 45.6% support against Borg's 32%.
The latest figures suggest that Abela has managed to consolidate his standing during the early stages of the campaign, although Borg's support has also remained relatively stable.
Among voters who backed Labour in the 2022 election, Abela commands overwhelming loyalty, with 87.3% preferring him as prime minister. Only 2% of Labour voters opted for Borg.
Meanwhile, among 2022 PN voters, 81.9% prefer Borg, while 3% said they favoured Abela.
Last week's survey