Two major election surveys published today indicate that the Labour Party has strengthened its advantage over the Nationalist Party, although the extent of the lead varies between polls.

A survey commissioned by Times of Malta and carried out by Esprimi places Labour 8.9 percentage points ahead of the PN, translating into an estimated lead of around 28,600 votes. The poll projects Labour on 52.9% and the PN on 44%, with smaller parties collectively securing 3.1%.

Meanwhile, a separate survey published by MaltaToday gives Labour a narrower but still comfortable lead of 6.3 points, equivalent to around 17,400 votes. That survey places Labour on 50.1%, the PN on 43.8%, and third parties on 6.1%.

Despite the different margins, both polls point in the same direction: Labour has widened the gap since earlier surveys conducted before the campaign formally intensified. Both also show the PN losing ground over recent weeks, while Labour has either consolidated or slightly increased its support.

The Times of Malta poll suggests Labour's lead has grown by around 9,000 votes in the space of a month, rising from a 6.3-point advantage in April to 8.9 points now. It also places Labour at its strongest level since the 2022 general election, though still below the 55.1% achieved in that landslide victory.

Similarly, the MaltaToday survey shows Labour climbing from 48.2% in March to 50.1%, while the PN slips from 45.6% to 43.8%. The survey argues that Labour has been more successful in reactivating former supporters during the campaign, while abstention among PN voters has increased sharply.

Both polls also suggest that smaller parties are struggling to convert dissatisfaction into significant electoral gains. Although MaltaToday places third-party support higher than the Times survey, neither indicates a breakthrough on the scale seen during the 2024 European Parliament election, when independents and smaller parties collectively performed strongly.

The issue of turnout, however, remains contested between the two surveys. The Times of Malta poll indicates abstention is falling, projecting turnout at nearly 88%, slightly above the 2022 election. In contrast, the MaltaToday survey suggests non-voters have increased to 22.7%, indicating that many disengaged voters remain unconvinced by the campaign.

MaltaToday also offers a detailed regional breakdown that highlights the country's continuing political divide. Labour remains dominant in the South East and retains strong support in the harbour regions, while the PN leads in Gozo, the Western district and parts of the North. Gozo remains the PN's strongest region, though its advantage there appears to have narrowed since March.

At the same time, the MaltaToday survey points to an important undercurrent beneath Labour's overall lead: a measurable transfer of former Labour voters to the PN since 2022. According to the survey, around 6% of Labour's 2022 voters have shifted to the PN, compared to a smaller movement in the opposite direction. This helps explain why Labour's current advantage, while substantial, still remains below the scale of its 2022 supermajority.

Taken together, the two surveys reinforce the perception that Labour enters the second half of the campaign in a stronger position, with the PN still struggling to close the gap despite some evidence of voter movement in its favour.